Partner Report

ERCE Global Upstream M&A Tracker:

Q1 2021

ERCE’s Global Upstream M&A Tracker is a quarterly product that provides an easy and detailed summary and analysis of global upstream M&A deals, both asset- and corporate-level. In this edition we cover upstream M&A activity over the last quarter of 2020 and summarise M&A trends for 2021.

Total M&A deal value in Q4/20 has dropped significantly in comparison to Q3/20. ERCE recorded a total deal value of US$15.97 bn in Q4/20 compared to the US$48.1 bn recorded in Q3/20. There was further consolidation in the US shale oil patch, with notable deals including Diamondback/QEP, Diamondback/Guidon and EQT/Chevron. Two deals crossed the US$1bn mark: the Trafigura/Rosneft deal and the Diamondback/QEP deal.

M&A transaction values crashed as oil prices plummeted during the first quarter of 2020. When oil prices began to recover in 2H 2020, Chevron’s acquisition of Noble Energy kicked off a wave of North American consolidation which peaked in October but slowed down in the final months of the year. The recovery in oil price would have likely been beneficial to deal making, due to a convergence in buyer and seller price valuations.

It is projected that the resurgence in the M&A market in the second half of 2020 would likely continue into 2021, but slow as the year progresses as the number of attractive merger partners starts to shrink. What trends have been observed in the M&A markets and what trends are affecting the oil majors? Download ERCE’s Global Upstream M&A Tracker to find out more.

Read in the full report:

Comprehensive summary of Upstream M&A deals over the last quarter of 2020
Upstream M&A Deal Value Analysis over the last two years
A Potential Australian M&A revival?
Going forward: M&A trends
Global Upstream M&A Metrics

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About ERCE Asia Pacific

The principals of ERCE have been providing consultancy services to the upstream oil and gas industry for 45 years, since the 1970s. Our experience extends across conventional and unconventional oil and gas provinces worldwide; particularly in Asia Pacific, Australasia, Europe, the Asian Sub-Continent, Africa, the Middle East, Russia and South America. ERCE are the leading independent, privately owned, consultancy company whose personnel comprise of full time geoscientists, petrophysicists, reservoir, cost and facilities engineers and economists across our offices in London, Singapore and Australia. We also retain a network of highly experienced associate consultants who supplement our project teams as required with specialist skills.

Our experience and expertise range from; Merger and Acquisition Evaluation, Field Simulation, Development and Management; Reserves & Resource Auditing; Equity, Valuation and Determination; Exploration Prospectivity & Portfolio Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty modelling; Expert Witness, Unitisation and Redetermination. Our technical team are skilled in database management, detailed core sedimentology interpretation, geomodelling, seismic processing workflows & QC, interpretation and quantitative geophysics, seismic property & AVO modelling, dynamic simulation modelling, history matching and forecasting, well intervention planning, reservoir optimisation and management, all the way through to exploration, appraisal, development planning.

Find out more: www.erce.energy

ERCE Asia Pacific Economics Team

Nicholas Lee

Graduate Economist at ERCE

Nicholas joined ERCE’s Asia Pacific team in 2020 and has since worked on various upstream oil and gas asset valuations for companies in the Asia Pacific, Australia, Africa, Middle East, and the North Sea. His skillset includes financial modelling and valuation, and in-depth knowledge of the upstream industry.

Nicholas holds an MSc degree in Quantitative Finance from the Singapore Management University and a BEng degree in Mechanical Engineering from the National University of Singapore.

Zhamal Orazbayeva

Head of Economics and Principal Economist at ERCE

Zhamal has over 10 years in Oil & Gas Valuation and Economics. Prior to joining ERCE, she worked as an Oil and Gas Equity Analyst in GMP Securities and Westhouse Securities in the City of London. Her coverage included a number of oil and gas companies with assets and listings internationally, and she visited oil and gas assets in Africa, Kazakhstan, Argentina and offshore Norway.

Zhamal's key skills include corporate and asset valuation, petroleum economics and fiscal regimes, construction of complex oil and gas valuation models in Excel, financial and strategic analysis. She has worked with clients ranging from private and listed upstream companies, IOCs and NOCs to governments.

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