Future Forecast Report: Energy investors and lenders see a return to fundamentals in the U.S.
U.S. and global energy markets have undergone significant disruption over the past 12 to 18 months, driven by shifting policy, geopolitical tension, and evolving demand dynamics.
Against this backdrop, senior representatives from leading U.S. and European banks, investment firms, and asset managers convened for a peer-led workshop to assess the outlook for energy markets and the factors shaping capital deployment.
Held on February 11, 2026, ahead of Energy Council New York (June 16 to 17 at NASDAQ), the Advisory Board discussion highlighted a clear shift toward more disciplined, fundamentals-driven investing.
Participants emphasized a preference for operating assets, contracted revenues, and projects with strong execution certainty, reflecting a more selective approach to risk.
At the same time, investors pointed to several forces reshaping the market:
- The growing importance of domestic energy security
- Accelerating electrification and AI-driven power demand
- The enduring role of natural gas in long-term portfolios
- The impact of regulatory uncertainty
- Global gas volatility
- Tariffs on investment pacing
Beyond the infrastructure boom, participants also highlighted diverging momentum across emerging technologies.
While carbon capture and storage (CCS) continues to attract robust project finance as a pragmatic solution alongside ongoing hydrocarbon production, investment in hydrogen has slowed, with many projects still at pilot stage.
Meanwhile, utility-scale battery storage is facing constrained access to capital, as regulatory pressures, particularly tightening Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) rules, limit the pool of investors, alongside ongoing supply chain and operational challenges.
Taken together, these perspectives point to a broader recalibration in global energy finance: a shift away from policy-driven momentum toward disciplined, cash flow focused investing grounded in contracted revenues and operational certainty.
… these perspectives point to a broader recalibration in global energy finance: a shift away from policy-driven momentum toward disciplined, cash flow focused investing grounded in energy security, contracted revenues, and operational certainty
Future Forecast Report: Energy investors and lenders see a return to fundamentals in the U.S.
What’s Driving Change in 2026?
- Focus on operating assets and contracted revenues
- Tariffs and regulation slowing early-stage investment
- Data centres accelerating infrastructure investment
- Reliable backbone for AI-led growth
- Execution certainty over development risk
- CCS rising, hydrogen and batteries lagging
What’s next?
These issues will be explored in greater depth at Energy Council New York (June 26-17, 2026) where industry leaders, investors, and policymakers will examine how energy and wider infrastructure markets are recalibrating and where the next wave of opportunity is emerging.
“A highly informative, well-organized conference with knowledgeable panelists, diverse perspectives, and excellent networking opportunities with key stakeholders.”
– Shell
“A superb event, with a great line-up of speakers and genuinely engaged attendees. An event that really was best in class. ”
– Herbert Smith Freehills
“Well coordinated assembly with great connection opportunities.”
– Ares Management
