This preview is part of the Future Forecast Report: U.S., based on discussions held at the Energy Council New York Advisory Board in February 2026.
Bringing together leading investors, lenders, and asset managers, the session explored how capital is being deployed across U.S. energy markets amid shifting policy, rising power demand, and growing geopolitical uncertainty.
In this snippet of the report, we explore how shifting U.S. policy, tariff uncertainty, and political polarization are influencing international investor confidence and capital deployment decisions.
Recent shifts in U.S. energy policies and abrupt tariff announcements have heightened uncertainty for international investors.
Emergency measures, such as orders to keep coal power plants online, and sudden tariff changes can materially affect deal economics, slow transactions, and increase risks associated with guaranteed structures.
As a result, international investors are increasingly selective in evaluating U.S. projects.
Early-stage developments, particularly those pre-NTP, are now largely avoided, with financing concentrated on assets that are operating or fully permitted.
One participant summarized the shift in approach: “Four years ago, to achieve strong returns, we often had to take late-stage development risk. Today, the investment committee is only comfortable with projects where electricity is already flowing to the grid.”
“Today, the investment committee is only comfortable with projects where electricity is already flowing to the grid.”
Rising power prices further reinforce this focus on operational assets.
Looking ahead, board members highlighted that ongoing political polarization in the United States is being factored into medium-term risk assessments, influencing how capital is deployed and how project viability is evaluated.
Continue reading to understand how these shifting investment priorities intersect with rising AI-driven power demand, and how hyperscale data centre growth is creating new opportunities and pressures across U.S. energy infrastructure.
Future Forecast Report: Energy investors and lenders see a return to fundamentals in the U.S.
What’s Driving Change in 2026?
- Focus on operating assets and contracted revenues
- Tariffs and regulation slowing early-stage investment
- Data centres accelerating infrastructure investment
- Reliable backbone for AI-led growth
- Execution certainty over development risk
- CCS rising, hydrogen and batteries lagging
What’s next?
These issues will be explored in greater depth at Energy Council New York (June 26-17, 2026) where industry leaders, investors, and policymakers will examine how energy and wider infrastructure markets are recalibrating and where the next wave of opportunity is emerging.
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